Saturday, October 25, 2008

Will the banking system fail?

Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew gave his projection that if the banking systems do NOT fail, the world economy will likely turn around in 3, 4 or 5 years; and the Asian economies under this optimistic scenario will likely come out ahead. However, if the banking systems do fail, the situation will be much more difficult.

The BIG question is whether the banking systems will come out ok after this financial turmoil?

The US Treasury has committed to US$700 Bil to buy toxic bank assets... BUT many say, "too little too late"

In Europe, UK banks were nationalised, even the biggies like RBS included to the tune of 80 Bil pounds... Is this enough?

Governments in ASIA have come together to set up a pool of $80 Bil to help with liquidity of banks if necessary?

Governments around the world, including Singapore, have guaranteed all bank deposits in full to restore consumer confidence and prevent capital flights

Alan greenspan, the long-time US Fed Chief admitted in court hearing that his fiscal policies are wrong...

... are all of these enough to prevent the banking system from failure, I would like to think so...

At this time, the stock markets are still tanking. Some labeled the downward spiral in asian and european stock markets on Friday the Black Friday... Watch out for the Black Monday when wall street opens. Singapore STI will have to wait till Tuesday as our market close for Deepavali holiday.

The general sentiment is that the stock market will be heading even lower... many analysts have advised to sit out this spiral and not commit new investments. When CEO Liew Mun leong was asked on ST what will he do with capitaland's cash hoard of $4 Bil he said he is no rush..."Just when you think something is cheap, it becomes even cheaper."

I will await MM's optimistic scenario to come true. For now, I will be sitting out like most people.

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